The Jerusalem Post, by Shay Gal: A Turkish drone penetrating Israeli airspace is no longer imaginary – by 2025, it has become a realistic threat. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unprecedented statement on March 30, openly calling for Allah to bring “destruction upon Zionist Israel,” underscores that a direct military clash is inevitable. Turkey is already deeply entrenched near Israel’s borders, unlikely to leave voluntarily.
Following the Turkish-backed December 2024 coup in Damascus, Ankara has become Syria’s principal powerbroker, directly or indirectly controlling around 8,000 sq.km. from Idlib to Ras al-Ayn, dangerously close to Israeli territory.
This Islamist-oriented Syrian government, now openly allied with Ankara, is actively negotiating a formal defense pact to host Turkish troops and advanced air-defense systems permanently on Syrian soil, a move that would fundamentally alter the strategic balance.
Reports confirm that Turkey is already preparing air bases in northern Syria capable of launching drone operations, which could threaten Israeli airspace directly and severely constrain Israel’s operational freedom.
Israel’s strategic community, as indicated clearly in the Nagel Committee’s report released in January 2025, has identified Turkey’s deepening military entrenchment in Syria as potentially “even more dangerous than the Iranian threat.”
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal, former head of the IDF’s Dado Center, echoes this concern, emphasizing Turkey’s advanced drone capabilities, sophisticated electronic warfare, and NATO-standard military training as critical risks to Israel’s national security.
Further compounding Israel’s challenge is Turkey’s overt support for Hamas, increasingly operating freely within Turkish territory. Senior Hamas operatives, including Saleh al-Arouri, have been coordinating terrorist operations from Istanbul – a reality confirmed by Israeli intelligence and reported widely in international media.
Moreover, recent intelligence reports from late 2024 raised concerns among US lawmakers that Hamas may have expanded its presence into Turkish-occupied Northern Cyprus, exacerbating Israeli worries that Turkey might weaponize its proxies against Israel from these newly acquired forward-operating bases.
Notably, Turkey’s pro-government media, including Yeni Safak and Sabah, have reported intensified military cooperation with Syria’s new Islamist-oriented government, citing diplomatic and security sources discussing permanent air bases and drone deployments.
Erdogan’s aggressive stance toward Israel
Senior Erdogan advisers have also publicly promoted inflammatory claims of alleged Israeli aggression, even urging readiness through activation of Russian-made S-400 missile systems, underscoring Ankara’s confrontational posture toward Israel.
Recent events significantly reinforce this threat perception. Erdogan himself escalated the rhetoric dramatically on March 30, explicitly calling upon Allah to bring “destruction upon Zionist Israel,” a statement described by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar as explicitly antisemitic and dangerous to regional stability.
Such inflammatory rhetoric, unprecedented even by Erdogan’s own standards, reveals a clear intent to mobilize nationalist sentiment at home, diverting attention from internal crises and potentially laying the groundwork for military escalation.
Erdogan’s aggressive posture in Syria poses significant diplomatic and operational challenges for NATO. Turkey’s membership places the alliance in an impossible predicament should a conflict erupt with Israel.
Although Ankara could theoretically invoke NATO’s Article 5, key members – particularly the US, France, Germany, and Greece – are deeply skeptical of Erdogan’s recent provocations and breaches of alliance protocols. This internal division risks paralyzing NATO, undermining its cohesion, and potentially leaving Turkey isolated within Western strategic frameworks.
Erdogan faces mounting domestic turmoil, including soaring inflation above 44% and recent political upheaval, notably the arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Historically, leaders under similar pressures have resorted to external conflicts as distractions. Israeli analysts fear Erdogan may exploit nationalist sentiment through increased tensions with Israel.
Given Erdogan’s ongoing struggle to contain massive internal unrest, exemplified by unprecedented mass protests following Imamoglu’s arrest, a calculated escalation against Israel appears increasingly plausible.
Turkey’s internal crisis reached a boiling point in late March 2025, following the politically charged arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s main rival. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in the largest anti-government protests in over a decade, accusing Erdogan of dismantling democracy.
Imamoglu, jailed under questionable charges and stripped of his academic credentials to bar his candidacy, continues rallying the opposition from prison, branding Erdogan a “tyrant.”
Erdogan’s strategy and risks involved
Beyond domestic political distraction, Erdogan’s strategic motives include consolidating influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, expanding Turkey’s geopolitical leverage in NATO and vis-à-vis Russia, and asserting dominance in the Sunni Arab world.
Yet, Erdogan risks losing more than political capital. A reckless military adventure against Israel could endanger Turkey’s already tenuous hold over Northern Cyprus, occupied since 1974.
With Greece and Cyprus rapidly modernizing their armed forces through substantial Israeli defense exports – including Greece’s acquisition of Elbit’s PULS rocket launchers and Rafael’s Spike anti-tank missiles, and Cyprus deploying the advanced Barak MX air-defense system produced by Israel Aerospace Industries – any Turkish aggression could prompt decisive retaliation, potentially rolling back decades of Turkish military entrenchment on the island.
Such a scenario offers Greece and Cyprus historic opportunities. A weakened and distracted Turkey might lose control over Northern Cyprus, enabling diplomatic efforts by the EU and UN to end the occupation and significantly reshape regional geopolitics.
Erdogan’s Turkey faces growing isolation. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates distrust his ties to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, while Greece, Cyprus, and Israel’s strong alliance leaves Ankara with minimal regional support.
Russia currently acts as a reluctant stabilizer. Israel, despite longstanding tensions, quietly supports Moscow’s continued presence at Tartus and Khmeimim bases to counterbalance Turkey’s ambitions.
Nevertheless, Israel cannot rely solely on external actors. Immediate strategic adjustments are vital: defining clear red lines against Turkish incursions and bolstering air defense, electronic warfare, and deterrence.
Erdogan’s antisemitic statements, overt threats, and support for Hamas must be swiftly exposed to global audiences. A proactive diplomatic and media campaign emphasizing these dangers and Turkey’s NATO breaches is crucial to ensure international legitimacy for any Israeli response.
Ultimately, preparedness remains Israel’s strongest deterrent. History shows that the best way to avoid war is visible and resolute preparation. Analysts increasingly recognize that Erdogan’s posture toward Israel aims at reshaping regional strategic dynamics rather than seeking short-term tactical gains. Israel must publicly expose and proactively challenge Erdogan’s strategic ambitions.
The Nagel Committee rightly urges an urgent increase in Israel’s defense budget – up to an additional NIS 15 billion annually over five years – to adequately prepare the IDF for these emergent Turkish threats.
Erdogan’s regime has never been closer to conflict with Israel. With domestic legitimacy collapsing amid mass protests, Erdogan’s threats have become immediate and increasingly militarized. While open to dialogue, Israel must recognize that military confrontation is no longer a question of “if,” but “when.” Visible military preparedness, strengthened air defenses, advanced intelligence, and proactive diplomacy are Israel’s strongest deterrents.
Prophetic Link:
“Today the signs of the times declare that we are standing on the threshold of great and solemn events. Everything in our world is in agitation. Before our eyes is fulfilling the Saviour’s prophecy of the events to precede His coming: “Ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars…. Nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.” Evangelism, page 194.1.
Comments