“After a nightmarish 2017 hurricane season featuring monsters such as Harvey, Irma and Maria, many in the U.S. are hoping for a quieter year. A top forecasting group says that won’t be the case.
“Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University — regarded as the nation’s top seasonal hurricane forecasters — predict 14 named tropical storms, of which seven will become hurricanes. Both numbers are above the average of 12 and six, respectively. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph.
“Of the seven predicted hurricanes, three are expected to spin into major hurricanes — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.” There is a 63% chance that a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline during the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
“Last year, the team predicted 11 tropical storms would form, of which 4 would become hurricanes. In all, 17 tropical storms developed and 10 strengthened into hurricanes.
“One of the major determining factors in hurricane forecasting is whether the U.S. is in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern, he said. El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Its opposite, La Niña, marked by cooler ocean water, tends to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic.
“Klotzbach said we’re now in a weak La Niña event, which appears likely to diminish over the next several months. At this point, a significant El Niño is not anticipated for the summer or fall, he added.
“The other big question mark in this season’s predictions are how warm sea-surface temperatures will be in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to the forecast. Hurricanes need the fuel of warm ocean water to develop and strengthen.
“The university, under the direction of meteorologist William Gray, was the first group to predict seasonal hurricane activity in the mid-1980s. Gray died in 2016. This is the team’s 35th forecast. It covers the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather released its hurricane forecast for the upcoming season earlier this week, predicting 12-15 named storms would form, of which six to eight will be hurricanes. The firm said three to four are likely to hit the U.S.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its forecast in May.
The restraining Spirit of God is even now being withdrawn from the world. Hurricanes, storms, tempests, fire and flood, disasters by sea and land, follow each other in quick succession. Science seeks to explain all these. The signs thickening around us, telling of the near approach of the Son of God, are attributed to any other than the true cause. Men cannot discern the sentinel angels restraining the four winds that they shall not blow until the servants of God are sealed; but when God shall bid His angels loose the winds, there will be such a scene of strife as no pen can picture.” Testimonies for the Church, Vol. 6, page 408.
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