Yahoo Finance, by Bloomberg News: President Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro sparked widespread discussion on Chinese social media, with many users saying the operation offered a template for how Beijing could handle tensions with Taiwan.
Trump’s operation against the Venezuelan strongman shot to the top of China’s Weibo late Saturday, with the topic gaining some 440 million views on the X-like platform. Many commentators were quick to make comparisons between the fate of the South American nation and that of the self-ruled democracy Beijing has vowed to claim.
“I suggest using the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future,” one user said in reply to a post with more than 700 likes. “Since the US doesn’t take international law seriously, why should we care about it?” said another user.
“The US imperialists’ lightning raid on Venezuela to capture Maduro and his wife provides a perfect blueprint for our military to launch a surprise attack on Frog Island and seize Lai Ching-te,” wrote one person, using a derogatory term to refer to Taiwan. Lai is Taiwan’s president.
China’s Foreign Ministry urged the US to release Maduro and his wife and ensure their safety. The raid on Venezuela violates international law and the basic norms governing international relations, as well as the principles of the UN Charter, it said in a statement. Earlier, the ministry said it was “deeply shocked” by the “blatant use of force against a sovereign state.”
Taiwan is “closely monitoring” Venezuela’s situation, its Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that it would work with the US and other democratic nations “to jointly contribute to regional and global security, stability and prosperity.”
President Xi Jinping has stepped up military pressure around Taiwan, most recently by conducting live-fire drills around the island — exercises that Trump downplayed. Beijing has refrained from using violence, however, preferring coercion tactics coupled with a diplomatic drive to isolate Taipei on the world stage.
The outpouring of nationalist sentiment in China doesn’t mean Xi will change that strategy toward Taiwan, one of the biggest flashpoints between the world’s largest economies. But Trump’s strike could give Beijing space to ramp up military aggression in its own backyard.
“I don’t expect today’s events in Venezuela will dramatically shift Beijing’s calculus on Taiwan,” Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,wrote on X. “Beijing hasn’t refrained from kinetic or other actions on Taiwan out of deference to international law and norms.”
“Privately, I expect Beijing will emphasize to Washington that it expects to be given the same latitude for great power exemptions to international law that the US takes for itself,” he added, citing China’s operations in the South China Sea, where it has territorial disputes with US allies and other regional neighbors.
For decades, the US — Taiwan’s top weapons supplier — has been a restraining force on Chinese aggression, with the risk of sanctions and American military action looming over any invasion. The Chinese Communist Party leader also has to weigh domestic sentiment, military readiness and economic implications.
Trump’s actions now hand Xi another opportunity to portray China as a custodian of the international rules-based order that the US helped to create, but is increasingly veering away from.
The US’ strike has returned the world “to the colonial era of barbaric plunder,” the official Xinhua News Agency wrote in a commentary on Sunday. “The subsequent statement of the President of the United States completely tore off the hypocritical mask of the so-called ‘fighting drug terrorism’ and exposed the true face of resource imperialism.”
Trump’s operation to oust strongman Maduro follows a months’ long campaign of airstrikes on boats purportedly carrying illegal drugs.
Hours before his capture, a high-level Chinese delegation met in Caracas with Maduro, who shared images of the group shaking hands on his Instagram page. It’s unclear whether the diplomats, including Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Latin American Affairs Qiu Xiaoqi, were still in the country during the attack.
China is well-positioned to engage with those currently holding the reins in Venezuela, said Margaret Myers, senior advisor of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.
“Beijing has consistently pursued engagement with all viable political actors, regardless of ideology, and is likely to maintain what presence it can over the long term in light of its substantial investments and Venezuela’s strategic importance,” she added.
China had warmed ties with Venezuela in recent years, offering Maduro a powerful ally and opportunity for oil sales. Venezuela has the largest known reserves in the world, but is subject to international sanctions. China is the country’s biggest customer for oil exports, which represent about 95% of Venezuela’s revenue.
The Trump administration stepped up a pressure campaign against that trade in recent days, sanctioning companies based in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with related oil tankers it accused of evading restrictions.
Great Power Politics
To Xi, Trump’s actions could be viewed as consistent with great powers intervening in neighboring countries in the name of national security, said Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noting this was how Beijing perceived Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “A potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan could fall into the same bucket,” he added.
“I don’t think it’s hyperbole to speculate that this opens the window for Xi to contemplate military action toward Taiwan, especially if the global response to the US action is muted,” said Morris.
Others were skeptical Beijing has the military know-how for such an operation.
The US strike was the result of months of intelligence work and carried out by more than 150 aircraft, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine said at a Saturday briefing. A helicopter force approached Maduro’s compound shortly after 2 a.m. in Caracas, before taking fire, he added. Maduro and his wife then “gave up,” Caine said.
US forces involved likely had extensive experience operating in hostile environments, according to Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“I don’t think the PLA has any experience like that,” he said, referring to the People’s Liberation Army. “Beijing has other options for neutralizing Taiwan’s leader,” he added, claiming China would have a higher chance of success with assassinations.
Prophetic Link:
“The coming of the Lord is nearer than when we first believed. The great controversy is nearing its end. Every report of calamity by sea or land is a testimony to the fact that the end of all things is at hand. Wars and rumors of wars declare it. Is there a Christian whose pulse does not beat with quickened action as he anticipates the great events opening before us?” Evangelism, 219.1
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