After the unexpected Brexit vote, the EU is shaken up and is scrambling to avoid the “spill-over effect” to prompt further defections. Berlin’s plan to use the EU for its own hegemonic purposes is being challenged. When Britain’s military, for example, leaves the EU, Germany will not have access to it for its own purposes and will have to strengthen its own military. In the wake of the Brexit vote, the first such vote in EU history, Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany announced that Germany will increase military spending and that the German military budget must draw closer to the United States.
But there is another side to the story. The Brexit vote can lead to a domino effect with other EU countries. The Swedish foreign minister explicitly warned that the Brexit could trigger a “Swexit,” or a Swedish exit from the EU. Some in the German media are demanding that the EU should ignore the vote of the people, and let the British parliament vote in favor of remaining in the EU, since the vote was only advisory.
People throughout Europe are losing confidence in the EU, and questions have arisen as to whether the EU can survive. In May, a poll in nine countries revealed that 45% of the EU population of those countries thinks their own country should hold a referendum on EU membership. In France and Italy it is even higher at 55% and 58% respectively, and many of them said they would vote to leave the EU, 41% in France, 48% in Italy, and 39% in Sweden. And those numbers have been rising in recent times.
Other polls suggest that the EU is increasingly seen in a negative light. In Spain a mere 47% assess the EU positively, a 16% drop since 2004, and 44% of Spaniards view the EU negatively. In Greece, it is 71% of the population. Only Germany and Poland view the EU with a positive rating.
There are other possible reactions as well. Thomas Kielinger, the London correspondent for the daily “Die Welt,” wrote, “Could it be that… in the case of a Brexit, the Lower House could consider to ignore the will of the people and turn down withdrawing from the EU?” He predicted that it is ”not only thinkable, but probable.” Of the 650 parliamentarians, 455 are in favor of remaining in the EU, 130 for leaving and 54 undecided. That’s 70 percent in support of remain, 20 percent to leave and 10 percent non-committal.” Recently, German media openly expressed their opposition to referendums along these lines, for example, media commentary suggested that it is wrong to believe that “direct democracy, per se, is a good thing.”
Recently for example, the Dutch were called upon to vote on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. A majority opposed the agreement, but the Dutch national parliament simply chose to disregard the referendum results, saying it was “non-binding.”
In the Netherlands, only 45% of the population are still in favor of remaining in the EU, while 48% for withdrawing, signifying that in at least one of the EU founding member countries, the pro-EU majority is crumbling. A domino effect related to the Brexit vote cannot be ruled out.
This all suggests a time of uncertainty for Berlin’s goals to rule Europe. Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier wrote in an article published in Foreign Policy that the EU “has run into struggles of its own” and has “stumbled.” Germany will try to hold as much ground as possible, while at the same time reinforcing Berlin’s national positions.
“They shall not cleave one to another, even as iron is not mixed with clay.” Daniel 2:43.
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