Food shocks are more likely in a warmer climate say climate change experts. Crops can fail and prices rise rapidly around the world as a result of increased extreme weather events. By the end of the century seven out of ten years could have extreme weather events. Researchers say that over reliance on global trade may make the food production shocks worse. This will affect Africa and the Middle East dramatically.
In 2010-11, a heat wave in Russia led to the country’s worst drought in 40 years, which decimated the grain harvest. It led indirectly to food riots in Africa as the price of bread rose rapidly.
Researchers from the U.S. and the UK have analyzed the chances of similar weather events in other parts of the world, as climate change warms the earth. One-in-a-hundred-year events are likely to increase to one-in-30-year events by 2040, with the most powerful and severe shocks from 2070 and onward.
“It is very difficult to characterise these extreme events and their frequency, but what we do see quite clearly is that events that are very rare in the present day are becoming more frequent in the future,” said Kirsty Lewis, from the UK’s Met Office. “The most extreme events of the future are likely to become more intense, so potentially larger shocks and more frequent shocks.”
The UN says that food demand from increasing population will be up by 60% by 2050 and will put significant pressure on production. “If we are coping with demand increase by sustainable intensification, but then we suddenly have a catastrophic year, and we lose a big chunk of the world’s calories, everybody will feel it.”
The poorest households spend more than 50% of their income on food and it is focused on basic commodities, not processed food. They are going to feel it the worst.
More globalization is the answer they say. “There should be efforts to reform world trade so that countries don’t retreat behind barriers when crops fail.”
“And there shall be famines.” Matthew 24:6
“…Satan is exercising his power. He sweeps away the ripening harvest, and famine and distress follow. He imparts to the air a deadly taint, and thousands perish by the pestilence. These visitations are to become more and more frequent and disastrous. Destruction will be upon both man and beast.” Great Controversy, page 589
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