In the four years since Pope Frances ascended the papal throne he has had a “signature diplomatic breakthrough” in three of them. He helped prevent an anti-Assad Western offensive in Syria in 2013; he helped the United States and Cuba to restore diplomatic relations in 2014; and he provided moral dimension to support the Paris climate change agreement in 2015.
While it may be unrealistic to demand one historic diplomatic and political triumph every year, many diplomats are wondering where next Francis’ diplomatic and political lightening will strike?
Francis is a pope in a hurry. And he has a track record of making a difference. While there is a long list of fronts on which Francis and the Vatican can and will be engaged in 2016, there are five areas of the world that could be key targets of the pope.
U.S. immigration reform is surely to be a big issue in the U.S. elections in 2016. While Donald Trump has called for a huge wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and a ban on all Muslims entering the United States, Pope Francis sees his planned visit to Ciudad Juarez near El Paso, Texas, as an opportunity to make a political impression. Francis may call for the wall not to be built when he visits Juarez. He is expected to express his support for immigrant rights, having already said that the visit represents a “dramatic situation” at the border.
Needless to say, the Vatican stands to gain support in the U.S. by keeping the border relatively open so that Latinos, who are mostly Catholic can come to the U.S. to live, work and eventually sway political elections even more strongly than currently.
Europe’s refugee crisis is another area in which the pope may make political efforts with considerable effect. With more than a million refugees and migrants already in Europe, European politics are moving toward favoring a closed-door policy. Francis has promoted an “accepting and accommodating” stance with these new arrivals, “a clear signal that Europe’s crisis is a priority for him in 2016.
“I wish to reaffirm my conviction that Europe … has the means to defend the centrality of the human person and to find the right balance between its twofold moral responsibility to protect the rights of its citizens and to ensure assistance and acceptance to migrants,” he said in a recent speech to the Vatican diplomatic corp.
He may deliver his message in Poland in July when he visits Krakow for the Catholic Church’s World Youth Day. While Poland has threatened to back out of its EU immigration commitments, it still depends on the Catholic Church for support. Shaming Poland could get its attention.
Colombia is a third region where the pope could make a big difference. While the FARC, or the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia have reached agreements with the government on land reform, political participation, drugs and drug crops, etc., a bi-lateral cease-fire has yet to be signed. Both the Santos government and the FARC leadership have paid tribute to Francis’ support. Pope Francis has already spoken twice with Colombia’s president Santos to urge progress. “We do not have the right to allow ourselves yet another failure,” he said recently in speaking of the situation in Colombia. If they hit a roadblock in the negotiations, they might invite the pope to assist. If he does, and a deal is reached, Francis could again be hailed as a game changer.
The Central African Republic is a fourth area of political potential for the pope. The CAR has had a lot of savage violence between Muslim and Christian militias. The political elections were amazingly peaceful after Francis recent visit to the country in which he brushed aside security concerns and visited a mosque in Bangui, the capitol city.
Many credit the pope’s visit with calming of the political climate in the CAR. If the elections end peacefully, the pope could well get a great deal of the credit.
While Francis cannot stop ISIS by himself, he can encourage Western nations to be more committed to the anti-ISIS push especially because of the regions vulnerable minorities. While Francis pushes peace, he has said that “it’s legitimate to stop an unjust aggressor,” in an unprecedented call for war against ISIS.
“My thoughts turn to the Christians of the Middle East, who desire to contribute fully as citizens to the spiritual and material well-being of their respective nations,” he said to the Vatican’s diplomatic corp. A further dose of moral exhortation from the pope could help deliver stronger action.
“And his deadly wound was healed.” Revelation 13:3
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